Can US agriculture withstand a trade war with China?

It's a Friday morning in March, and we are driving through Maryland to speak with US soybean farmers. US President Donald Trump had just announced plans to establish sweeping trade levies on a number of major US trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, the European Union and China. 

As we pass corn and soybean fields, I can't help but wonder what farmers think about these developments. Can they navigate the uncertainty of an unpredictable Trump administration?

Trump has long enjoyed strong support from the US farming community, often citing his understanding of their struggles. However, this time, many farmers face uncertainty as fears of trade wars and tariff disputes loom over their livelihoods.

Two hours from Washington, D.C., we arrive in Greenwood, Delaware where we're supposed to meet Richard Wilkins, a soybean farmer who has been in the industry since 1973.

As it's winter, his fields are currently bare. Wilkins exports some of his soybeans through the port of Virginia, which then enter global markets.

He argues that the United States tried to lead by example by opening its markets broadly to imported goods from around the world.

"The anticipation was that this example would encourage other countries in other nations to do the same thing and to give us access. If tariffs are a necessity to get us into a better open marketplace and free competition around the world, then I'm fully supportive of President Trump," he told DW. 

Wilkins said he and other US farmers still "feel strongly" that Trump does have a "fondness for the American farmer."

Rising uncertainty amid higher market volatility

Josh Messick, a 27-year-old from Sussex County, has been farming with his family since he was 12. Their 1,200-acre farm produces corn, soybeans, wheat and barley. Messick is worried about current market volatility.

"It's definitely a scary time. You don't really know if you want to contract corn now, or if you want to wait till the fall. Then at the time of harvest. I just got to trust that Trump is going to back us up," he told DW.

The full impact of Trump's trade policies on farmers may not be felt until the next harvest. In the short term, some agricultural products could become cheaper for consumers if exports decline. However, the cost of corn, wheat and soybeans makes up a relatively small portion of retail food prices.

In his inaugural address to the US Congress on January 20, the new US president argued that agricultural imports hurt American farmers and urged them to "bear with him" while he worked to protect them.

Messick said he considered it "weird" when Trump said that, and is now wondering how long he has to "bear with him."

"Our highest market prices usually come during planting season in May and June. So the question is, do we wait until then, or do we need to be selling our crop now? What if China decided not to take anything from us?"

Messick isn't the only soybean farmer in Maryland who is worried about losing market share due to Trump's trade policies.

"We hope we can reach some balance, but Trump's decisions make me uneasy. If we have to endure short-term losses, I hope the government provides support," said another farmer, Grier Stayton.

Can US farmers withstand Trump's unpredictability?

The US president has yet to announce any financial assistance to US soybean farmers, whose exports, specifically to China, have been declining for years.

According to the US International Trade Commission, soybean exports to China dropped by 75% in 2018, after Trump unleashed a trade war with China during his first presidency. Overall agricultural exports to the Asian country fell from $24 billion (€22.3 billion) in 2014 to under $10 billion in 2019.

Still, Trump has been promoting his plan to implement reciprocal trade tariffs, which on April 2 will also be introduced against the European Union. On his own social media platform, Truth Social, Trump urged US farmers to "get ready to start making a lot of agricultural products to be sold INSIDE the United States."

But according to Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, US farmers have yet to recover from the 2018 trade war.

He stressed the importance of maintaining access to the Chinese market, saying that farmers are already "looking at potentially heavy losses" in 2025. He and his fellow farmers, he said, "can't bear the brunt of the load" of agricultural levies. "We can't be the sacrificial lamb that carries most of the pain for the good of everyone else," he told DW.

Calling on Trump to "proactively negotiate" with China and other countries, he said: "Let's try to go ahead and get the trade deal that he negotiated during his first administration."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler