The eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) indicates that the number of fatalities resulting from terrorism in 2023 increased by 22 percent. This means that terrorist activity globally has witnessed a considerable rise, with 8,351 victims recorded. Pakistan, registering 490 attacks, has borne the brunt of most terrorist incidents. It marks the first time in two decades that a country other than Afghanistan and Iraq has topped the list of countries targeted by terrorist attacks.
Terrorism and extremism in Central Asia and the region have experienced unprecedented growth in recent years. The Taliban’s nearly three-year rule in Afghanistan has raised concerns, particularly among neighboring Central Asian countries. The Taliban’s ties with terror networks, especially regional terrorist groups such as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Al-Qaeda, have been maintained, granting leaders and members of these groups ample opportunity for activity within Afghanistan’s borders. The existence of terrorist sanctuaries and training camps has contributed to the growth of terrorism, greatly alarming countries in the region. This concern has been repeatedly voiced in international and regional forums.
Recently, Akram Munir, Pakistan’s permanent representative to the United Nations, strongly criticized the presence of terrorists, especially members of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, inside Afghan territory during a Security Council session, adding that this terrorist group, under the clear patronage of the Taliban, is active. Recently, Asif Ali Khan Durrani, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan affairs, said in an international meeting titled “Pakistan in the Emerging Geopolitical Landscape” that the economic and security damage Pakistan has suffered from Afghanistan surpasses the damages of its three wars with India. He attributes what his country has endured in recent decades in dealing with separatists and Pakistani insurgents to the situation in Afghanistan, while Pakistan’s religious schools, military bases, and training camps run by the Pakistani army and intelligence have been the primary sources of production and nurturing of several generations of extremist terrorists. And in the past twenty years, the soil of Pakistan has also been used by the Taliban and other Afghan insurgent groups. He stated that Pakistan has had 80,000 victims in the war against terrorism over the past two decades, and these victims are still ongoing.
In Pakistan, besides Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, several other armed insurgent groups are also active, causing hundreds of civilian and military casualties each year through anti-government and terrorist attacks in various regions of the country. These attacks primarily occur in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but other areas of Pakistan are also severely affected. As a result, Pakistan, the southern neighbor of Afghanistan, which had denied its relations with terrorist groups for years or construed them as political excuses has now descended to the position of the world’s most unstable country.
Iran, too, has not remained untouched by terrorist attacks. In the latest incident, on January 3, 2024, a terrorist attack in Kerman Martyrs Cemetery claimed over a hundred lives and left hundreds injured. This unprecedented attack in Iran elicited strong reactions both domestically and globally. The responsibility for this bloodshed was claimed by ISIS Khorasan. Before this, another attack occurred at the Shah Cheragh Holy Shrine in Shiraz resulting in 13 fatalities and around 20 injuries. ISIS Khorasan also claimed responsibility for this attack. Furthermore, a series of bombings in Sistan and Balochistan during the past year were attributed to the Jundallah group.
Terrorism in Central Asia has become a serious challenge. While leaders and major actors of terrorist networks in Central Asia often operate outside the region, external support and unstable conditions in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Middle East have had a significant impact on the rapid growth of extremism in those countries. However, domestic conditions in Central Asian countries are considered the primary source of this threat. Poverty, oppression, and the absence of opportunities for non-violent struggles have fueled the rise of extremism. Major terrorist groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizb ut-Tahrir, allies of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, have been active. Hizb ut-Tahrir, claiming to establish a caliphate for Muslims worldwide, has expanded its influence in the region over the past two decades. This terrorist group has been significantly active in Afghanistan since 2003 and has penetrated Central Asia from there. This group, like the Taliban, claims to oppose ISIS; however, the history of ISIS crimes indicates that groups like Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and Hizb ut-Tahrir have paved the way for its growth. Many leaders, commanders, and most former ISIS activists have a background in other extremist groups, particularly the Taliban.
Afghanistan has now become a fertile ground for the strengthening and establishment of terrorist groups. Numerous Western, Islamic, and regionally affiliated sources, including a news outlet known as “Islamic World News (https://iswnews.com),” confirm this. There is no longer much need for official confirmation from organizations and governments because there is ample evidence that necessitates concern about the future of extremism in the region and the role that Taliban rule plays in exacerbating and strengthening this crisis. Pakistan and Iran, due to their direct involvement in the Middle Eastern and Afghan conflicts and their support for jihadism over the past forty years, have long been embroiled in extremism and terrorism, either domestically or externally in those countries. Consequently, it is not surprising that we now witness the growth of terrorism and the empowerment of terrorist organizations within their borders. Jundallah has been carrying out attacks in Iran for years, and the Pakistani Taliban have been engaged in conflict with the Pakistani army for over two decades. Baloch separatist organizations in Pakistan, which have resorted to Taliban-style terrorist tactics in recent years, have a long-standing presence in that country’s crisis. What is relatively new in this terrorist tragedy is the pronounced role of Central Asia.
Central Asia faced two extremist phenomena after independence: one was a strong inclination to revive the Islamic past and resort to extremism and terrorism for this purpose, and the other was the insistence on creating military and non-elective dictatorial governments that deemed any intellectual freedom and religious activities illegal. The confrontation between these two movements in the 1990s, especially in Tajikistan, led to extensive bloodshed. Another neighbor of Afghanistan in Central Asia (Uzbekistan) managed to manage the terrorism crisis with less cost. Tajikistan was faced with a full-scale civil war, and the eventual peace established between Islamists and the government of Imam Ali Rahman did not resolve the extremism problem but rather transferred it to covert networks. The frustration of Islamist forces led to the mass migration of extremists to the bosom of extremist movements in the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. As a result, thousands of fighters from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian countries entered the larger arena of regional terrorism and established close political and even familial relationships with their counterparts in Arab countries, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
In the mid of the second decade of the current century, when ISIS reached its peak in Iraq and Syria, thousands of fighters from Central Asia joined this group. Most of these individuals were young, disillusioned, unemployed, impoverished, frustrated with the political and economic future of their country, and facing severe financial difficulties in their personal lives. ISIS recruiters attracted them from factories and workshops in Russia, universities, schools, and markets in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian countries. The military successes of the brutal ISIS violence in 2014 and 2015 created a wave of extremism in Central Asia, and it reached a point where Tajikistan’s army personnel also left their duties and joined Iraq and Syria. Quoting an article recently published by Mohammad Ekram Andishmand on his Facebook page, Gulmurod Khalimov, the commander of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Interior Special Forces, left his duty in 2015 and joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Gulmurod Khalimov was warmly welcomed by ISIS and was appointed as its war minister. He was not alone; over two thousand Tajiks joined ISIS in the Middle East. A considerable number of these individuals were killed, and according to reports, some have returned to their country, while others have joined ISIS Khorasan in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the recruitment of ISIS and other terrorist groups through virtual and physical means has continued in recent years.
The recent ISIS Khorasan attacks in Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, and Russia illustrate the significant role of Tajik citizens in these terrorist attacks. However, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, and Kyrgyz have not been immune to the scourge of terrorism. The Fergana Valley, a vast and populous land in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, witnessed years of warfare and conflict between jihadist groups and governments ruling over each of its three parts in the 1990s. There is now serious concern that this valley and its adjacent areas may become a new crisis hotspot, especially since fighters from this region have been involved in bloodshed and fire in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Middle East for years and have established deep ties with regional terrorist networks.
Now that the Taliban Emirate in Afghanistan has turned the country into a haven and training ground for Central Asian, Tajik, Uzbek, Uighur, and other terrorist groups, the region is facing uncertain and ambiguous circumstances. Any effort to safely navigate this situation and curb chaos and terrorism is contingent upon establishing a responsible government in Afghanistan.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here: